Simulation for Betting on Over or Under Goals Based on Average Expected Goals

Strategy ID: 3

💡 Strategy

This strategy shows what would happen if you bet on the full-time over/under goals market using the average expected goals for both teams in a match. You can try out different settings to see how your bets would work on real games without spending any money. It's a quick and risk-free way to check if your strategy can make a profit!

💥 How to request a simulation run?

To request a simulation run, send us an email at: [email protected] with the settings that you want to test (see the Examples section below).

Make sure to send your request in the right format so our system can understand it and our team can handle it quickly. Use the templates in the Examples section and adjust them to run the simulation you want.

Keep in mind this email is only checked by our software. So, only include the details for your simulation request—don’t add extra text or questions, as no one from our team will see them.

If you have questions, email us at [email protected].

After you send your simulation request, we’ll process it and email you a PDF with your results within 24 hours!

🚀 Examples

Here are some examples of simulation requests. To learn more about each setting and the valid options you can use, check out the next section, Request Settings, where everything is explained clearly.

Example 1: Place a bet on Over 2.5 Goals in each match where all the following conditions are met:

• The odds for Over 2.5 Goals are between 1.8 (4/5) and 2.2 (6/5).

• In the last 6 games (including home and away), the combined average expected goals for both teams is at least 3. For example, if we look at a match between Man City and Chelsea, and the expected goals are 2.0 for Man City and 1.3 for Chelsea, their combined expected goals would be 3.3. This meets our condition, as it’s more than 3 goals, so we would place a bet on Over 2.5 Goals for this game.

• Start the simulation from Round 7 (to ensure enough data is available to calculate the average expected goals for both teams.).

• This test uses data from the 22/23 season of the English Premier League.

<league_id>E0</league_id>
<strategy_id>3</strategy_id>
<season>22/23</season>
<selection>over_25</selection>
<min_odds>1.8</min_odds>
<max_odds>2.2</max_odds>
<start_round>7</start_round>
<end_round>38</end_round>
<last_n>6</last_n>
<last_n_all_games_checked>true</last_n_all_games_checked>
<average_goals>3</average_goals>

Example 2: Place a bet on Under 2.5 Goals in each match where all the following conditions are met:

• The odds for Under 2.5 Goals are between 1.5 (1/2) and 1.8 (4/5).

• In the last 6 games (including home and away), the combined average expected goals for both teams is no more than 1.5. For example, if we look at a match between Torino and Genoa, and the expected goals are 0.75 for Torino and 0.5 for Genoa, their combined expected goals would be 1.25. This meets our condition as it’s less than 1.5 goals, so we would place a bet on Under 2.5 Goals for this game.

• Start the simulation from Round 7 (to ensure enough data is available to calculate the average expected goals for both teams.).

• This test uses data from the 21/22 season of the Italian Serie A.

<league_id>I1</league_id>
<strategy_id>3</strategy_id>
<season>21/22</season>
<selection>under_25</selection>
<min_odds>1.5</min_odds>
<max_odds>1.8</max_odds>
<start_round>7</start_round>
<end_round>38</end_round>
<last_n>6</last_n>
<last_n_all_games_checked>true</last_n_all_games_checked>
<average_goals>1.5</average_goals>

Example 3: Place a bet on Over 1.5 Goals in each match where all the following conditions are met:

• The odds for Over 1.5 Goals are between 1.2 (1/5) and 1.5 (1/2).

• In the last 6 games, we calculate the combined average expected goals separately for each team based on their location (as last_n_all_games_checked is set to false):

  • For the home team, we only consider their last 6 home games, ignoring their away games.

  • For the away team, we only consider their last 6 away games, ignoring their home games.

  If the combined average expected goals for both teams is at least 2.5, the condition is met.

  For example, in a match between Man City and Chelsea:

  • Man City's expected goals at home are 2.5.

  • Chelsea's expected goals away are 1.3.

  Their combined expected goals would be 3.8. Since this is greater than 2.5, we would place a bet on Over 1.5 Goals for this game

• Start the simulation from Round 12 (to ensure enough data is available to calculate the average expected goals for both teams.).

• This test uses data from the 22/23 season of the English Premier League.

<league_id>E0</league_id>
<strategy_id>3</strategy_id>
<season>22/23</season>
<selection>over_15</selection>
<min_odds>1.2</min_odds>
<max_odds>1.5</max_odds>
<start_round>12</start_round>
<end_round>38</end_round>
<last_n>6</last_n>
<last_n_all_games_checked>false</last_n_all_games_checked>
<average_goals>2.5</average_goals>

⭐️ Request Settings

The fields with * are required, the others are optional and if not specified will use their default values.