Bet on double chance for slight underdogs

Hey Friend,

Are you excited for our new football betting strategy test this week? Take a look below!

💡 Strategy

This strategy is simple to follow. We bet on Italian Serie A games where there’s a slight underdog. A "slight underdog" means their Double Chance odds (to win or draw) are between 2.0 (1/1) and 2.6 (8/5). We bet on the underdog to either win or draw, which gives us a better chance of winning.

Here's how it works:

If the Double Chance odds for the underdog team to win or draw are between 2.0 (1/1) and 2.6 (8/5), we bet one unit on the underdog team to win or draw.

Example from Round 1 of the 2023-24 Italian Serie A Season:

• Udinese vs. Juventus: Udinese is the slight underdog in this game with odds to win of 4.8 (19/5), while Juventus has odds of 1.95 (19/20) to win. The double chance odds for Udinese to win or draw are 2.08 (27/25). Since these odds are between 2.0 (1/1) and 2.6 (8/5), and Udinese is the underdog, we bet one unit on Udinese to win or draw.

• Frosinone vs. Napoli: Frosinone is the underdog in this game with odds to win of 10.0 (9/1), while Napoli has odds of 1.4 (2/5) to win. The double chance odds for Frosinone to win or draw are 3.55 (51/20). Since these odds are NOT between 2.0 (1/1) and 2.6 (8/5), we skip this game and do not bet on the underdog to win or draw.

• Lecce vs. Lazio: Lecce is the underdog in this game with odds to win of 4.0 (3/1), while Lazio has odds of 2.14 (57/50) to win. The double chance odds for Lecce to win or draw are 1.88 (22/25). Since these odds are NOT between 2.0 (1/1) and 2.6 (8/5), we skip this game and do not bet on the underdog to win or draw.

📈 Stats

On average, in the Italian Serie A, the underdog team wins or it's a draw about 46% of the time.

This means betting on the underdog to win or draw can work well if we avoid games where they’re likely to lose. For example, we only bet when the underdog is a slight underdog, which is when their Double Chance odds to win or draw are between 2.0 (1/1) and 2.6 (8/5).

⭐ Testing

We tested this strategy over the past season of the Italian Serie A (2023-24). Starting from Round 1, we bet £10 on the underdog to win or draw when the Double Chance odds for the underdog were between 2.0 (1/1) and 2.6 (8/5).

For the 2023-24 season, we placed bets on 107 games. We won 42% of those bets, making a net profit of £-49.20, which is an ROI of -4.6%.

To see all the games we bet on, the odds, and which bets won, download the PDF file below:

🚀 Bet Or Regret?

Betting on the underdog to win or draw in Serie A when the Double Chance odds are between 2.0 (1/1) and 2.6 (8/5) didn’t go well in our tests. We ended up losing 4.7% of our money. So, you might REGRET trying this betting strategy!

DISCLAIMER: Past results don't guarantee future success. Only bet what you can afford to lose and do your own research too.