Bet on home underdogs to cover their handicap

Hey Friend,

Are you excited for our new football betting strategy test this week? Take a look below!

💡 Strategy

This strategy is easy to follow. We bet on underdog teams in the English Premier League playing at home to not lose by more than their handicap advantage.

Here's how it works:

• For each game, we check the Asian Handicap odds. We look for odds that give both teams an almost equal chance—meaning the favourite team’s odds to win and cover their handicap and the underdog’s odds to not lose by more than the handicap are about the same - around 2.0 (1/1).

• Once we find these odds, we choose games where the home team is a big underdog with a handicap between +1.5 and +4. Then, we bet on the underdog, meaning we’re betting that the favourite team won’t cover their handicap.

Example from Round 1 of the 2023-24 Premier League Season:

• Burnley vs. Man City: Burnley is the underdog and are playing at home. At the same time the handicap for them is +1.5 (which fits our range of +1.5 to +4). The odds for Man City to cover the handicap are 2.09 (109/100), close to 2.0 (1/1). So, we place a bet on Burnley with a +1.5 goal advantage.

• Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest: Nottingham Forrest is the underdog in this game. The home team (Arsenal) have a handicap of -2 which gives Nottingham Forrest +2 goals advantage (which fits our range). Also, the odds for Arsenal to win are 1.91 (91/100), close to 2.0 (1/1). However, since Nottingham Forrest are the underdog and are playing away, we skip this game because we only bet on home teams when the underdog is playing at home, not the favourite.

On average, the favourite team wins 59% of the time in the Premier League.

But often, the favourite team doesn’t win by a big margin, which can help us find good bets. For example, we only bet on the favourite to NOT cover their handicap when they’re playing away and the underdog can use their home advantage to not lose by more than their handicap.

⭐ Testing

We tested this strategy over the past season of the English Premier League (2023-24). Starting from Round 1, we bet £10 on each game where the home team handicap was between +1.5 and +4 and the odds for the favourite or underdog to win were close to 2.0 (1/1).

For the 2023-24 season, we placed bets on only 16 games that fit our criteria. We won 38% of those bets, making a net profit of £-29.30, which is an ROI of -18.3%.

To see all the games we bet on, the odds, and which bets won, download the PDF file below:

🚀 Bet Or Regret?

Betting on underdog teams playing at home when the home team’s handicap is between +1.5 and +4 did not work well in our tests. Even though we only found 16 games that fit our conditions, we won only 38% of our bets and made a 18.3% loss. So, we think you might REGRET following this strategy.

DISCLAIMER: Past results don't guarantee future success. Only bet what you can afford to lose and do your own research too.