Bet On Over 2.5 Goals In The Premier League

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💡 Strategy

This strategy is a little more advanced, but don’t worry—we’ll walk through it step by step! It works by betting on “Over 2.5 Goals” when the total average goals for both teams in their last six games is 3.5 or higher, and the odds for Over 2.5 are between 1.4 (2/5) and 2.0 (1/1).

How do we calculate average expected goals for a team?

1. Calculating the team’s attack strength

   • To find the team’s attack strength, we look at their performance at home and away:

     • Attack at Home = Average goals scored by the team at home / Average goals scored by all home teams in the league

     • Attack Away = Average goals scored by the team away / Average goals scored by all away teams in the league

2. Calculating the team’s defence strength

   • To find the team’s defence strength, we look at their performance at home and away:

     • Defence at Home = Average goals conceded by the team at home / Average goals conceded by all home teams in the league

     • Defence Away = Average goals conceded by the team away / Average goals conceded by all away teams in the league

3. Calculating the Expected Goals per Game

   • Once we have the attack and defence strengths for both teams, we can calculate the expected goals for both the home and away teams:

     • Home Team Expected Goals = Home Team Attack x Away Team defence x Average League Goals Scored at Home

     • Away Team Expected Goals = Away Team Attack x Home Team defence x Average League Goals Scored Away

Example from Round 13 of the 2023-24 Premier League Season:

After all these formulas let’s look at an example to let you see how we chose what games to bet on, namely, games where the total average goals for both teams in their last six games is 3.5 or higher.

Let’s look at the game between Man City and Liverpool from Round 13 of the Premier League season 2023-24.

Calculating Man City’s attack and defence strength:

Calculating Man City’s attack at home:

• Average goals scored by Man City at home for the past 6 games = 4.0

• Average goals scored by all home teams in the league for the past 6 games = 1.78

• Man City’s attack at home = 4.0 / 1.25 = 2.25 

Calculating Man City’s attack away:

• Average goals scored by Man City away for the past 6 games = 2.0

• Average goals scored by all away teams in the league for the past 6 games = 1.25

• Man City’s attack away = 2.0 / 1.25 = 1.6

Calculating Man City’s defence at home:

• Average goals conceded by Man City at home for the past 6 games = 1.0

• Average goals conceded by all home teams in the league for the past 6 games = 1.25

• Man City’s defence at home = 1.0 / 1.25 = 0.8

Calculating Man City’s defence away:

• Average goals conceded by Man City away for the past 6 games = 1.75

• Average goals conceded by all away teams in the league for the past 6 games = 1.78

• Man City’s defence away = 1.75 / 1.78 = 0.98

Calculating Liverpool’s attack and defence strength:

Calculating Liverpool’s attack at home:

• Average goals scored by Liverpool at home for the past 6 games = 2.67

• Average goals scored by all home teams in the league for the past 6 games = 1.78

• Liverpool’s attack at home = 2.67 / 1.78 = 1.5

Calculating Liverpool’s attack away:

• Average goals scored by Liverpool away for the past 6 games = 1.33

• Average goals scored by all away teams in the league for the past 6 games = 1.25

• Liverpool’s attack away = 1.33 / 1.25 = 1.06

Calculating Liverpool’s defence at home:

• Average goals conceded by Liverpool at home for the past 6 games = 0

• Average goals conceded by all home teams in the league for the past 6 games = 1.25

• Liverpool’s defence at home = 0 / 1.25 = 0 

Calculating Liverpool’s defence away:

• Average goals conceded by Liverpool away for the past 6 games = 1.67

• Average goals conceded by all away teams in the league for the past 6 games = 1.78

• Liverpool’s defence away = 1.67 / 1.78 = 0.94

Calculating Man City’s Expected Goals

Calculating Expected Man City’s Home Goals

Expected Home Goals = Man City Home Goals X Liverpool Away Defence X Average League Home Goals

Expected Man City Home Goals = 2.25 X 0.94 X 1.78 = 3.76

Calculating Expected Man City’s Away Goals

Expected Away Goals = Man City Away Goals X Liverpool Home Defence X Average League Away Goals

Expected Man City Away Goals = 1.6 X 0 X 1.25 = 0

Overall Expected Goals for Man City

Exp Goals = (Expected Home Goals + Expected Away Goals) / 2

Exp Goals = (3.76 + 0) / 2 = 3.76 /2 = 1.88

Calculating Liverpool’s attack strength:

Calculating Expected Liverpool’s Home Goals

Expected Home Goals = Liverpool Home Goals X Man City Away Defence X Average League Home Goals

Expected Liverpool Home Goals = 1.5 X 0.98 X 1.78 = 2.61

Calculating Expected Liverpool’s Away Goals

Expected Away Goals = Liverpool Away Goals X Man City Home Defence X Average League Away Goals

Expected Liverpool Away Goals = 1.33 X 0.8 X 1.25 = 1.33

Overall Expected Goals for Liverpool

Exp Goals = (Expected Home Goals + Expected Away Goals) / 2

Exp Goals = (2.61 + 1.33) / 2 = 3.76 /2 = 1.97

Final Call

After doing lots of calculations, we are ready to decide if we should bet on “Over 2.5 Goals” for the Man City vs. Liverpool game. Remember, we only bet if the combined Expected Goals for both teams is 3.5 or more and the odds for Over 2.5 Goals are between 1.4 (2/5) and 2.0 (1/1). For this game, Man City's Expected Goals are 1.88 and Liverpool's are 1.97 - their combined Expected Goals are 3.85. Also, the odds for Over 2.5 Goals are 1.54 (27/50). This meets our condition, so we place our bet with our chosen amount (which in our case was £10).

📈 Stats

According to the stats, about 65% of the games in the Premier League end with Over 2.5 Goals.

This means that betting on Over 2.5 Goals in the Premier League gives you a good chance to win if you manage to filter games where less than 2.5 goals are scored.

⭐ Testing

We tested this strategy over the past season of the English Premier League (2023-24). Starting from Round 7 of the season, we bet £10 on each game where the combined Expected Goals for both teams was 3.5 or more and the odds for Over 2.5 Goals were between 1.4 (2/5) and 2.0 (1/1).

For the 2023-24 season, we placed bets on 97 games. We won 67% of those bets, making a net profit of £82.30, which is an ROI of 8.5%.

To see all the games we bet on, the odds, and which bets won, download the PDF file below:

🚀 Bet Or Regret?

Betting on “Over 2.5 Goals” in the English Premier League where the combined Expected Goals for both teams is 3.5 or more and the odds for Over 2.5 Goals are between 1.4 (2/5) and 2.0 (1/1) has worked ok in our tests. It has produced small but consistent profits, so we suggest you BET on it too.

DISCLAIMER: Past results don't guarantee future success. Only bet what you can afford to lose and do your own research too.