Bet on away underdogs to cover their handicap

Hey Friend,

Are you excited for our new football betting strategy test this week? Take a look below!

💡 Strategy

This strategy is easy to follow. We bet on underdog teams in the English Premier League playing away to not lose by more than their handicap advantage.

Here's how it works:

• For each game, we check the Asian Handicap odds. We look for odds that give both teams an almost equal chance—meaning the favourite team’s odds to win and cover their handicap and the underdog’s odds to not lose by more than the handicap are about the same - around 2.0 (1/1).

• Once we find these odds, we choose games where the home team is a big favourite with a handicap between -4 and -1.5. Then, we bet on the underdog, meaning we’re betting that the favourite team won’t cover their handicap.

Example from Round 1 of the 2023-24 Premier League Season:

• Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest: Arsenal is the favorite, and they have a handicap of -2 (which fits our range of -4 to -1.5). The odds for Arsenal to win are 1.91 (91/100), close to 2.0 (1/1). So, we place a bet on Nottingham Forest with a +2 goal advantage.

• Burnley vs. Man City: Man City is the favourite, but the handicap for the home team (Burnley) is +1.5. The odds for Man City to cover the handicap are 2.09 (109/100), close to 2.0 (1/1). However, since Man City is the favourite and they are playing away, we skip this game because we only bet on away teams when the underdog is playing away, not the favourite.

📈 Stats

On average, the favourite team wins 59% of the time in the Premier League.

But often, the favourite team doesn’t win by a big margin, which can help us find good bets. For example, we only bet on the favourite to NOT cover their handicap when they’re playing at home and the odds are likely higher than they should be.

⭐ Testing

We tested this strategy over the past season of the English Premier League (2023-24). Starting from Round 1, we bet £10 on each game where the home team handicap was between -4 and -1.5.

For the 2023-24 season, we placed bets on 59 games. We won 58% of those bets, making a net profit of £124.75, which is an ROI of 21.15%.

To see all the games we bet on, the odds, and which bets won, download the PDF file below:

🚀 Bet Or Regret?

Betting on underdog teams playing away when the home team’s handicap is between -4 and -1.5 worked well in our tests. We won 58% of our bets and made a 21.15% return on our money. So, we think you might want to BET following this strategy.

DISCLAIMER: Past results don't guarantee future success. Only bet what you can afford to lose and do your own research too.