Bet On Both Teams To Score In The Premier League

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Are you excited for our new football betting strategy this week? Take a look below!

💡 Strategy

This strategy is a bit more complex, but don’t worry, we’ll break it down step by step. It involves betting on “Both Teams To Score - Yes” when the average expected goals for each team based on their last six games is 1.5 or more.

How do we calculate average expected goals for a team?

1. Calculating the team’s attack strength

   • To find the team’s attack strength, we look at their performance at home and away:

     • Attack at Home = Average goals scored by the team at home / Average goals scored by all home teams in the league

     • Attack Away = Average goals scored by the team away / Average goals scored by all away teams in the league

2. Calculating the team’s defence strength

   • To find the team’s defence strength, we look at their performance at home and away:

     • Defence at Home = Average goals conceded by the team at home / Average goals conceded by all home teams in the league

     • Defence Away = Average goals conceded by the team away / Average goals conceded by all away teams in the league

3. Calculating the Expected Goals per Game

   • Once we have the attack and defence strengths for both teams, we can calculate the expected goals for both the home and away teams:

     • Home Team Expected Goals = Home Team Attack x Away Team defence x Average League Goals Scored at Home

     • Away Team Expected Goals = Away Team Attack x Home Team defence x Average League Goals Scored Away

Example from Round 13 of the 2023-24 Premier League Season:

After all these formulas let’s look at an example to let you see how we chose what games to bet on, namely, games where we expected that both teams would score at least 1.5 goals.

Let’s look at the game between Man City and Liverpool from Round 13 of the Premier League season 2023-24.

Calculating Man City’s attack and defence strength:

Calculating Man City’s attack at home:

• Average goals scored by Man City at home for the past 6 games = 4.0

• Average goals scored by all home teams in the league for the past 6 games = 1.78

• Man City’s attack at home = 4.0 / 1.25 = 2.25 

Calculating Man City’s attack away:

• Average goals scored by Man City away for the past 6 games = 2.0

• Average goals scored by all away teams in the league for the past 6 games = 1.25

• Man City’s attack away = 2.0 / 1.25 = 1.6

Calculating Man City’s defence at home:

• Average goals conceded by Man City at home for the past 6 games = 1.0

• Average goals conceded by all home teams in the league for the past 6 games = 1.25

• Man City’s defence at home = 1.0 / 1.25 = 0.8

Calculating Man City’s defence away:

• Average goals conceded by Man City away for the past 6 games = 1.75

• Average goals conceded by all away teams in the league for the past 6 games = 1.78

• Man City’s defence away = 1.75 / 1.78 = 0.98

Calculating Liverpool’s attack and defence strength:

Calculating Liverpool’s attack at home:

• Average goals scored by Liverpool at home for the past 6 games = 2.67

• Average goals scored by all home teams in the league for the past 6 games = 1.78

• Liverpool’s attack at home = 2.67 / 1.78 = 1.5

Calculating Liverpool’s attack away:

• Average goals scored by Liverpool away for the past 6 games = 1.33

• Average goals scored by all away teams in the league for the past 6 games = 1.25

• Liverpool’s attack away = 1.33 / 1.25 = 1.06

Calculating Liverpool’s defence at home:

• Average goals conceded by Liverpool at home for the past 6 games = 0

• Average goals conceded by all home teams in the league for the past 6 games = 1.25

• Liverpool’s defence at home = 0 / 1.25 = 0 

Calculating Liverpool’s defence away:

• Average goals conceded by Liverpool away for the past 6 games = 1.67

• Average goals conceded by all away teams in the league for the past 6 games = 1.78

• Liverpool’s defence away = 1.67 / 1.78 = 0.94

Calculating Man City’s Expected Goals

Calculating Expected Man City’s Home Goals

Expected Home Goals = Man City Home Goals X Liverpool Away Defence X Average League Home Goals

Expected Man City Home Goals = 2.25 X 0.94 X 1.78 = 3.76

Calculating Expected Man City’s Away Goals

Expected Away Goals = Man City Away Goals X Liverpool Home Defence X Average League Away Goals

Expected Man City Away Goals = 1.6 X 0 X 1.25 = 0

Overall Expected Goals for Man City

Exp Goals = (Expected Home Goals + Expected Away Goals) / 2

Exp Goals = (3.76 + 0) / 2 = 3.76 /2 = 1.88

Calculating Liverpool’s attack strength:

Calculating Expected Liverpool’s Home Goals

Expected Home Goals = Liverpool Home Goals X Man City Away Defence X Average League Home Goals

Expected Liverpool Home Goals = 1.5 X 0.98 X 1.78 = 2.61

Calculating Expected Liverpool’s Away Goals

Expected Away Goals = Liverpool Away Goals X Man City Home Defence X Average League Away Goals

Expected Liverpool Away Goals = 1.33 X 0.8 X 1.25 = 1.33

Overall Expected Goals for Liverpool

Exp Goals = (Expected Home Goals + Expected Away Goals) / 2

Exp Goals = (2.61 + 1.33) / 2 = 3.76 /2 = 1.97

Final Call

After doing lots of calculations, we are ready to decide if we should bet on “Both Teams to Score - Yes” for the Man City vs. Liverpool game. Remember, we only bet if both teams have Expected Goals of 1.5 or more. For this game, Man City's Expected Goals are 1.88 and Liverpool's are 1.97. This meets our condition, so we place our bet with our chosen amount (which in our case was £10).

📈 Stats

According to the stats, about 62% of the games in the Premier League end with Both Teams To Score:

This means that betting on Both Teams to Score in the Premier League gives you a good chance to win.

⭐ Testing

We tested this strategy over the past season of the English Premier League (2023-24). Starting from Round 7 of the season, we bet £10 on each game where both teams had Expected Goals of 1.5 or more.

For the 2023-24 season, we placed bets on 53 games. We won 68% of those bets, making a net profit of £366.20, which is an ROI of 69%.

To see all the games we bet on, the odds, and which bets won, download the PDF file below:

🚀 Bet Or Regret?

Betting on “Both Teams To Score - Yes” in the English Premier League where average Expected Goals for each team is 1.5 or above has worked well in our tests, so we suggest you BET on it too. We found it can give good returns over time if you use a bookie with the best possible odds.

DISCLAIMER: Past results don't guarantee future success. Only bet what you can afford to lose and do your own research too.