Bet on Underdogs to win In 1st Round Of Europe's Top 5 Leagues

Hey Friend,

Are you excited for our new football betting strategy this week? Take a look below!

💡 Strategy

This strategy is easy to follow. We bet on underdogs to cause an upset and to win in the 1st Round of each of the top five leagues - Premier League, Primera Division, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1.

Here's how it works:

1. Check the Odds: For each 1st Round game, look at the odds for the underdog.

2. Odds above 6.0 (5/1) If the odds for the underdog to win are above 6.0 (5/1), place a single bet (no accumulators) with your chosen amount.

Example from Round 1 of the 2023-24 Premier League Season:

• Burnley vs. Man City: Burnley is the underdog in this game and the odds for them to win are 9.5 (17/2). This is more than 6.0 (5/1), so we place a bet on Burnley to win.

• Newcastle vs. Aston Villa: Aston Villa is the underdog in this game and the odds for them to win are 4.9 (39/10). As 4.9 (39/10) is lower than 6.0 (5/1), we do not bet on this game.

📈 Stats

According to the stats, about 19.5% of the games in the English Premier League are won by the underdogs. If we can pick the right games and bet on these underdogs, we might make good money - especially given that the odds for the underdogs can be quite high. The trick is to avoid betting on games where the underdogs are likely to lose. 

One good example is when teams play in the first round of the competition. Since the favourites haven't been playing real games for a while, this might be a chance for the underdogs to surprise them.

⭐ Testing

We tested this strategy over the past 3 seasons of each of the five top European Leagues - Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1. Betting only on the 1st Round of each season, we bet £10 on each game where the odds for the underdogs were above 6.0 (5/1).

Premier League

For the 2023-24 season, we placed a bet on 1 game only. We lost that bet, making a net profit of £-10.00, which is an ROI of -100%.

For the 2022-23 season, we placed bets on 6 games. We won 1 game only, making a net profit of £1.20, which is an ROI of 2%.

For the 2021-22 season, we placed bets on 2 games. We lost both bets, making a net profit of £-20.00, which is an ROI of -100%.

In the past 3 seasons of the Premier League, we bet on underdogs in the first round 9 times and won only once. This means we achieved a net loss of  £28.80.

Primera Division

For the 2023-24 season, we placed bets on 2 games. We lost both bets, making a net profit of £-20.00, which is an ROI of -100%.

For the 2022-23 season, we placed bets on 3 games. We lost all bets, making a net profit of £-30.00, which is an ROI of -100%.

For the 2021-22 season, we placed bets on 3 games. We lost all bets, making a net profit of £-30.00, which is an ROI of -100%.

In the past 3 seasons of the Primera Division, we bet on underdogs in the first round 8 times and lost all of our bets. This means we achieved a net loss of  £80.00.

Serie A

For the 2023-24 season, we placed bets on 3 games. We lost all bets, making a net profit of £-30.00, which is an ROI of -100%.

For the 2022-23 season, we placed bets on 5 games. We lost all bets, making a net profit of £-50.00, which is an ROI of -100%.

For the 2021-22 season, we placed bets on 2 games. We lost both bets, making a net profit of £-20.00, which is an ROI of -100%.

In the past 3 seasons of the Serie A, we bet on underdogs in the first round 10 times and lost all of our bets. This means we achieved a net loss of  £100.00.

Bundesliga

For the 2023-24 season, we placed bets on 3 games. We lost all bets, making a net profit of £-30.00, which is an ROI of -100%.

For the 2022-23 season, we placed a bet on 1 game only. We lost the bet, making a net profit of £-10.00, which is an ROI of -100%.

For the 2021-22 season, we placed bets on 3 games. We won one bet, making a net profit of £61.00, which is an ROI of 103%.

In the past 3 seasons of the Bundesliga, we bet on underdogs in the first round 7 times and won only one bet. This means we still achieved a net profit of  £41.00.

Ligue 1

For the 2023-24 season, we placed bets on 2 games. We lost both bets, making a net profit of £-20.00, which is an ROI of -100%.

For the 2022-23 season, we placed bets on 3 games. We won one bet, making a net profit of £70.00, which is an ROI of 133%.

For the 2021-22 season, we placed bets on 2 games. We lost both bets, making a net profit of £-20.00, which is an ROI of -100%.

In the past 3 seasons of the Ligue 1, we bet on underdogs in the first round 7 times and won only one bet. This means we still achieved a net profit of  £30.00.

🚀 Bet Or Regret?

Betting on underdogs in the first round in the top five European leagues didn’t work well in our tests. In total for the past 3 seasons across all five leagues, we bet on 41 games and we won only 3 bets. This means we lost a total of £310.20. Even though we achieved net profit for the Bundesliga and Ligue 1, we believe that you might REGRET following this betting strategy of betting on underdogs in the 1st round.

DISCLAIMER: Past results don't guarantee future success. Only bet what you can afford to lose and do your own research too.